Enjoying the middle ground
The verdict is out on how things will move forward over the next two years, but it seems that the extremes may be fading
David Laurine, President
Highmount Logistics
Published: November 24, 2011
Returning from Amsterdam, I had more than a few thoughts on our latest Transport Symposium, PPI TS19. Most of all, this time we all seemed to be talking in the middle of the spectrum and the extremes appear to have faded, at least just a little.
Attendance was very good for Amsterdam, especially in light of the economy and the current global situation. Whether that was due to the great conference rates or an increased interest in the Symposium, or the convenient location of Amsterdam, I’m not sure. But I think whatever the reason, it was certainly commendable that we had the kind of attendance that demonstrates some overall interest from terminal operators and shippers in the importance of Transport Symposium.
The panel I moderated, “Challenges & Opportunities Facing the Forest Products Transportation Industry,” spoke on the broad topic of issues facing shippers, carriers, and terminal operators. While other panels spoke on more specific issues, my panelists discussed everything from piracy to EU sulfur restrictions. There wasn’t one overarching theme or problem shadowing everything else. As always, there were the volumes about China. It’s not a revelation, but it’s still the “800 lb gorilla” in the room when someone puts up China’s numbers on a slide.
Another panel spoke about the emerging market of wood pellet transportation. This still seems to be in an adolescent mode. Whether this can become a market that expands dramatically remains to be seen.
What a minute
Something that wasn’t talked about much in Amsterdam is a topic I discussed in a blog about six months ago – the capacity issue coming out of the 2008/2009 recession. Right now, at least on the container side, there’s a race to build bigger ships and it doesn’t seem the market, in general, is going to absorb that. In my mind, the verdict is still out about how things will move forward over the course of the next few years.
The verdict is out about how things will move forward over the course of the next two years. Assuming all this capacity comes on in the container world, how will the global economy be able to absorb it? I have heard, somewhat anecdotally, that rates from Europe to the Far Easter are essentially less than zero, once you factor in bunker charges.
Container shipping is enough of the overall pie that you have to look at this and say, “What a minute.” If that’s what going on in the market right now, and you see some very anemic peak season surcharges on imports to the US, why would is there construction on 18,000 TEU vessels? Maersk, for example, is building 10 – 15 of them. Obviously, they see things in a different light or are more certain about things than how I see them.
A better Symposium
Aside from the topics presented in the panel sessions, the Speakers Corner was an interesting concept. From the presentations I attended, and from what I heard, this new addition to Transport Symposium was well received. For example, Botnia presented some information on RFID chips in pulp units. This was not something that would easily fit into a panel sessions, but still important to share to the industry. Most everyone thought the new forum for presentations was worth expanding for the PPI TS20.
Speaking of … It’s not my habit to look too far into the future, but I am looking forward to having the next event in Baltimore, PPI Transport Symposium 20 in 2013. Getting to and from Baltimore should be simple from almost anywhere in the world. And from what I hear, holding the event in a hotel would be good logistically. You could, if you wanted, choose to step inside and not have to go outside until the conference was over. Whether that comes out or not remains to be seen. But having everything in one place or close by will only make Baltimore even better.
Attracting big fishes
As most of you have read or heard, my time serving on the IFPTA Board of Directors came to an end with the latest election. I enjoyed my six years as a Director, starting with the Symposium in Antwerp, through Mobile, then Liverpool and now Amsterdam. Being recognized by your peers in the first place, there’s an honor and prestige in that. I appreciate that very much.
For the IFPTA, we certainly have to understand that the Southern Hemisphere and the Far East are increasingly important in the forest products world. The Symposium still seems to be a Northern Europe, US/North America-focused event, which is not ideal moving forward. The IFPTA is beginning to recognize that trend and opportunity, holding regional seminars in South America and Asia during non-Symposium years.
In the forest products world, as the big fish continue to eat the little fish, being able to attract those cargo owners and keep them as a part of the group is an ever-constant challenge. Beyond that, we should try to recognize that the container lines are an ever-larger portion of the pie in the transporting forest products.
How do we attract a broad spectrum of shippers, BCOs, carriers – breakbulk and containers – service providers, etc. for a global association? That is the ongoing challenge for the IFPTA going forward.
